Coming into the year, the backdrop was strong: inflation was falling, policy was supportive, and growth looked stable. I still think we get back to that environment.

But even before the recent US/Iran conflict, cracks were forming — particularly in large-cap tech and software.

There’s a growing belief that AI will disrupt traditional software models, and we’ve seen that reflected in the market:

• Major software names pulled back  (for example Microsoft -23%, Cloudflare -45%, Shopify -35%)

• Parts of the “Magnificent 7” struggled

I don’t view this as a collapse. It looks more like a repricing.

These are still dominant, highly profitable companies — but expectations were too high. Now valuations are becoming oversold, reasonable, and in many cases, attractive. When something falls out of favor this quickly, opportunities start to emerge.  

At the same time, we had already been increasing exposure to a different theme: hard assets and infrastructure.

Before the conflict:

• We reduced some NASDAQ exposure

• Added more diversified and equal-weight exposure

• Increased allocations to commodities and real assets

Those moves helped buffer portfolios recently — but they weren’t reactionary. They were based on longer-term trends.

What the conflict has done is reinforce that view.

We’re seeing a global shift toward:

• Energy security

• Domestic production and reshoring

• Infrastructure and electrification

• Redundancy in supply chains

The Strait of Hormuz is a good example. It’s the most efficient route for energy, but not the only one.

If costs or risks rise too much, the world adapts:

• New pipelines get built

• Alternative routes develop

• Supply chains shift

Iran understands this dynamic well — push too hard, and it only accelerates the world’s move away from relying on them. Their biggest bargaining chip is control of the Strait of Hormuz. Right now, they’re not fully shutting it down. Instead, they’re allowing tankers through — but at a cost. In some cases, that cost has reportedly reached millions per tanker, effectively turning the strait into a controlled toll route. But the key point is that the cost, at least for now, is still manageable (around 1% extra) in the context of global energy markets. Iran needs the revenue, and Asia still needs the oil. So rather than a complete disruption, what we’re likely seeing is a system where flows continue — just more expensive and more controlled. And over time, that still pushes the world toward building alternatives.

Either way, the outcome is the same: more investment, more buildout, and more demand for real assets.

How we’ve been positioning

Over the past couple of weeks, we’ve been active but disciplined:

• Took some profits from energy positions into strength

• Reallocated into broader global resource exposure

• Added to companies that will benefit from the data centre buildout and post war(s) rebuild

• Increased cash modestly as a hedge and to deploy strategically

We’re not chasing spikes — we’re rebalancing around them.

For example, last week when energy surged, we trimmed. This week, as energy came off, we added to global commodities. That reflects the longer-term view rather than reacting to short-term moves.

Where we are focused

Stepping back, the themes we’re leaning into are clear:

• Commodities and global resources (under-owned, benefiting from buildout)

• Infrastructure and energy systems

• Select tech and software (now more attractively priced after repricing)

My current watch list includes oversold Software companies, hardware tech companies/Ai infrastructure,  Gold (down about 20% from peak), Logistics/Energy (building out the electrical grid). 

I don’t have a strong view on the exact short-term path. But longer term, we’re positioning for where things are going — not where they are today.

Bottom line

• Inflation pressures are real, but likely manageable on their own

• Tech looks more like repricing than breakdown

• Commodities and infrastructure are gaining structural support

• Recent moves have been proactive, not reactive